Valve's published odds
| Rarity | Chance per open | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (blue) | 79.92% | 1 |
| Restricted (purple) | 15.98% | 6 |
| Classified (pink) | 3.20% | 31 |
| Covert (red) | 0.64% | 156 |
| Rare Special Item (gold) | 0.26% | 385 |
These five numbers add up to 100%. They are the only odds Valve publishes for weapon cases. Everything below them, which item, which wear, which Doppler phase, is not part of the disclosure.
How one open is decided
- The rarity tier is rolled with the odds above.
- One item from that tier is picked, each equally likely. With two Covert skins, each is 0.32%; with three Classified skins, each is 1.067%.
- Wear (Factory New to Battle-Scarred) comes from the item's float range. Valve does not publish the curve, so our simulator uses an estimated model.
- StatTrak: 10% of drops are StatTrak where the item has a StatTrak version.
Knife odds over many opens
A knife or gloves is 0.26% per open, 1 in 385. That does not mean 385 opens guarantee one: the chance of at least one is 63.3%. Half of players need 267 opens or more. A StatTrak knife is 0.026%, about 1 in 3,846.
| Opens | Chance of at least one knife or gloves | Cost at $2.68 per open |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.6% | $26.80 |
| 50 | 12.2% | $134.00 |
| 100 | 22.9% | $268.00 |
| 200 | 40.6% | $536.00 |
| 385 | 63.3% | $1,031.80 |
| 500 | 72.8% | $1,340.00 |
| 1,000 | 92.6% | $2,680.00 |
| 2,000 | 99.5% | $5,360.00 |
Cost column uses the cheapest case to open right now, the Kilowatt Case (case plus a $2.50 key).
Expected value of every CS2 case
Same odds, very different value. On Steam 7-day average prices from 2026-10-03, the average case returns 47% of what an open costs, from 62% for the Prisma Case down to 27% for the Operation Bravo Case. Click a case to open it in the simulator.
| Case | Cost / open | Expected value | Return | Released | Drop status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Prisma Case | $4.19 | $2.59 | 61.8% #1 | 13 March 2019 | Rare drop |
 Snakebite Case | $3.04 | $1.76 | 58.1% #2 | 3 May 2021 | Rare drop |
 eSports 2013 Winter Case | $19.77 | $11.24 | 56.8% #3 | 18 December 2013 | No longer drops |
 Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $8.98 | $4.99 | 55.6% #4 | 11 November 2014 | Rare drop |
 Prisma 2 Case | $4.11 | $2.27 | 55.3% #5 | 31 March 2020 | Rare drop |
 Horizon Case | $4.64 | $2.56 | 55.3% #6 | 2 August 2018 | Rare drop |
 Operation Wildfire Case | $6.48 | $3.56 | 54.9% #7 | 17 February 2016 | Rare drop |
 Gamma 2 Case | $6.79 | $3.71 | 54.7% #8 | 18 August 2016 | Rare drop |
 Chroma 2 Case | $7.77 | $4.24 | 54.5% #9 | 15 April 2015 | Rare drop |
 Gamma Case | $6.86 | $3.71 | 54.1% #10 | 15 June 2016 | Rare drop |
 CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $30.79 | $16.42 | 53.3% #11 | 8 November 2013 | Rare drop |
 Operation Broken Fang Case | $10.65 | $5.68 | 53.3% #12 | 3 December 2020 | No longer drops |
 Revolver Case | $6.41 | $3.36 | 52.4% #13 | 8 December 2015 | Rare drop |
 Shadow Case | $4.84 | $2.52 | 52.2% #14 | 17 September 2015 | Rare drop |
 Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | $7.75 | $4.02 | 51.8% #15 | 20 February 2014 | Rare drop |
 Falchion Case | $4.74 | $2.42 | 51.1% #16 | 26 May 2015 | Rare drop |
 Chroma 3 Case | $7.33 | $3.72 | 50.8% #17 | 27 April 2016 | Rare drop |
 Gallery Case | $3.40 | $1.71 | 50.3% #18 | 2 October 2024 | Rare drop |
 CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $20.84 | $10.45 | 50.1% #19 | 12 February 2014 | Rare drop |
 Chroma Case | $9.20 | $4.50 | 48.9% #20 | 8 January 2015 | Rare drop |
 Shattered Web Case | $8.41 | $4.07 | 48.4% #21 | 18 November 2019 | Rare drop |
 Danger Zone Case | $4.10 | $1.98 | 48.4% #22 | 6 December 2018 | Rare drop |
 CS20 Case | $3.77 | $1.76 | 46.8% #23 | 18 October 2019 | Rare drop |
 Fever Case | $3.38 | $1.57 | 46.5% #24 | 31 March 2025 | Active drop |
 Spectrum 2 Case | $6.61 | $3.07 | 46.4% #25 | 14 September 2017 | Rare drop |
 Dreams & Nightmares Case | $4.00 | $1.82 | 45.5% #26 | 20 January 2022 | Active drop |
 Spectrum Case | $7.52 | $3.36 | 44.7% #27 | 15 March 2017 | Rare drop |
 Glove Case | $16.26 | $7.23 | 44.4% #28 | 28 November 2016 | Rare drop |
 Winter Offensive Weapon Case | $15.38 | $6.79 | 44.2% #29 | 18 December 2013 | Rare drop |
 Recoil Case | $2.87 | $1.27 | 44.1% #30 | 1 July 2022 | Active drop |
 Operation Breakout Weapon Case | $13.26 | $5.84 | 44.1% #31 | 1 July 2014 | Rare drop |
 eSports 2014 Summer Case | $19.77 | $8.60 | 43.5% #32 | 10 July 2014 | No longer drops |
 Clutch Case | $3.21 | $1.31 | 40.8% #33 | 15 February 2018 | Rare drop |
 Revolution Case | $2.76 | $1.12 | 40.6% #34 | 9 February 2023 | Active drop |
 Operation Hydra Case | $40.86 | $16.27 | 39.8% #35 | 23 May 2017 | No longer drops |
 Huntsman Weapon Case | $13.96 | $5.24 | 37.5% #36 | 1 May 2014 | Rare drop |
 Fracture Case | $3.15 | $1.15 | 36.6% #37 | 6 August 2020 | Active drop |
 Kilowatt Case | $2.68 | $0.98 | 36.4% #38 | 6 February 2024 | Active drop |
 Operation Riptide Case | $14.35 | $5.15 | 35.9% #39 | 21 September 2021 | No longer drops |
 CS:GO Weapon Case | $148.05 | $44.46 | 30.0% #40 | 14 August 2013 | Rare drop |
 eSports 2013 Case | $61.73 | $17.66 | 28.6% #41 | 14 August 2013 | No longer drops |
 Operation Bravo Case | $82.00 | $22.30 | 27.2% #42 | 19 September 2013 | No longer drops |
FAQ
What are the odds of getting a knife in CS2?
0.26% per case open, about 1 in 385. It is the same in every weapon case. Half of players need 267 or more opens before their first knife or gloves, and 92.6% get at least one in 1,000 opens.
What are the odds of a StatTrak knife?
StatTrak applies to 10% of drops where a StatTrak version exists, so a StatTrak knife is 0.026% per open, about 1 in 3,846. Gloves have no StatTrak version.
Is there a pity timer on CS2 cases?
No. Every open is independent: a long run without a Covert or knife does not raise the odds of the next open. A dry streak is just variance.
Does Valve publish Doppler phase odds?
No. Valve publishes odds per rarity tier only. Phase splits quoted online (Ruby, Sapphire, Emerald and so on) are community estimates. In our simulator each Doppler finish counts as one item and the phase is chosen afterwards.
Which case has the best odds?
The rarity odds are identical in every case. What differs is value: the Prisma Case currently has the best expected return (62%), and the average across all 42 cases is 47%.
Back to the case simulator · Real cases on CaseBattles (18+)
This is a free simulator for entertainment: a demo, nothing is won and no money is used. Odds are Valve's published odds; wear and Doppler phase splits are estimated models, not Valve figures. Item values are indicative Steam market prices. Counter-Strike 2 and its item images are property of Valve Corporation. CaseBattles is not affiliated with or endorsed by Valve. 18+ only. Responsible gaming.