About the Shadow Case
Open the Shadow Case for free (released 2015) using the real item pool and Valve's published drop odds. Pick the Shadow Case in the simulator above, spin a single case or bulk-open hundreds, and see what you would really pull: M4A1-S | Golden Coil and USP-S | Kill Confirmed at Covert, and Shadow Daggers as the Rare Special Item. Nothing costs money and nothing is rigged.
What's inside the Shadow Case
Indicative Steam market prices across wears (Factory New to Battle-Scarred), updated 2026-10-03. StatTrak versions are worth more.
| Rarity | Item | Price range |
|---|---|---|
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | Night | $47.97 to $370.03 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web | $74.42 to $316.33 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened | $98.45 to $242.73 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel | $49.92 to $218.84 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade | $192.01 to $203.87 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched | $47.93 to $188.86 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | Stained | $5.65 to $170.38 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest | $43.99 to $155.93 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT | $44.61 to $151.25 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked | $36.83 to $147.94 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter | $112.08 to $119.10 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh | $43.57 to $116.33 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Shadow Daggers | $76.77 |
| Covert (red) | M4A1-S | Golden Coil | $57.57 to $305.33 |
| Covert (red) | USP-S | Kill Confirmed | $67.35 to $285.98 |
| Classified (pink) | AK-47 | Frontside Misty | $17.03 to $152.89 |
| Classified (pink) | SSG 08 | Big Iron | $10.33 to $35.43 |
| Classified (pink) | G3SG1 | Flux | $7.07 to $34.56 |
| Restricted (purple) | Galil AR | Stone Cold | $2.46 to $26.41 |
| Restricted (purple) | P250 | Wingshot | $1.49 to $8.87 |
| Restricted (purple) | M249 | Nebula Crusader | $1.16 to $8.07 |
| Restricted (purple) | MP7 | Special Delivery | $1.36 to $6.65 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | Glock-18 | Wraiths | $0.61 to $7.74 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | FAMAS | Survivor Z | $0.43 to $5.54 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons | $0.47 to $5.05 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | XM1014 | Scumbria | $0.26 to $2.25 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | SCAR-20 | Green Marine | $0.28 to $1.66 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | MAG-7 | Cobalt Core | $0.47 to $1.42 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | MAC-10 | Rangeen | $0.36 to $1.28 |
Shadow Case drop odds
These are Valve's official CS2 case odds, used for every open in the simulator:
| Rarity | Chance per open | Items in this case |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (blue) | 79.92% | 7 |
| Restricted (purple) | 15.98% | 4 |
| Classified (pink) | 3.20% | 3 |
| Covert (red) | 0.64% | 2 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | 0.26% | 13 |
Is the Shadow Case worth opening?
Opening one Shadow Case costs about $4.84: $2.34 for the case plus $2.50 for the key. Weighting every item by its real drop chance, wear and the 10% StatTrak chance, the expected value of one open is about $2.52, or roughly 52% of what you spend. Over 100 opens that is an expected loss of around $231.52. Almost all of the value sits in the Covert and knife slots, which together land on just 0.90% of opens, so most real openings return far less than the average. That is why trying it in the simulator first is the smart move.
Shadow Case FAQ
What are the odds of getting a knife from the Shadow Case?
Every Shadow Case open has a 0.26% chance (about 1 in 385) of a Rare Special Item. In this case that means Shadow Daggers. Covert skins drop 0.64% of the time, Classified 3.20%, Restricted 15.98% and Mil-Spec 79.92%.
Is the Shadow Case worth opening?
On average one Shadow Case returns about $2.52 in Steam market value against roughly $4.84 for the case plus a key, about 52% back. Over many opens you should expect to lose money; open it for fun in the simulator first.
What is the best item in the Shadow Case?
The top Covert skin is M4A1-S | Golden Coil, followed by USP-S | Kill Confirmed. The rarest drops are the Rare Special Items: Shadow Daggers.
Is this Shadow Case simulator free?
Yes. The simulator is free, needs no account and never uses real money or awards real items. It uses the real Shadow Case item pool and Valve's published odds so you can see how opening it really plays out.
Simulate related cases
Ready for real cases?
When the demo is not enough, open real CS2 cases on CaseBattles.gg with provably fair results you can verify, or take on other players in case battles. 18+ only, play responsibly.