About the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
Open the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case for free (released 2014) using the real item pool and Valve's published drop odds. Pick the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case in the simulator above, spin a single case or bulk-open hundreds, and see what you would really pull: AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel and P2000 | Fire Elemental at Covert, and Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit and more as the Rare Special Item. Nothing costs money and nothing is rigged.
What's inside the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
Indicative Steam market prices across wears (Factory New to Battle-Scarred), updated 2026-10-03. StatTrak versions are worth more.
| Rarity | Item | Price range |
|---|---|---|
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | Crimson Web | $220.44 to $1,987.13 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | Case Hardened | $948.87 to $1,938.67 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | Night | $676.72 to $1,800.00 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | Crimson Web | $743.76 to $1,800.00 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | Fade | $1,736.42 to $1,745.35 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | Slaughter | $1,195.20 to $1,625.17 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | Blue Steel | $959.07 to $1,471.37 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | $1,415.58 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | Fade | $1,132.71 to $1,381.28 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | Night | $450.07 to $1,380.00 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | Scorched | $495.77 to $1,354.60 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter | $774.98 to $1,269.31 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened | $516.50 to $1,150.19 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web | $201.10 to $1,100.00 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | Boreal Forest | $493.40 to $1,012.00 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web | $361.79 to $1,002.88 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel | $667.22 to $943.03 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest | $330.67 to $938.55 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | $929.50 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | Stained | $597.30 to $878.60 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | Urban Masked | $379.50 to $852.93 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web | $75.19 to $817.57 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT | $442.12 to $800.01 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked | $363.27 to $800.00 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT | $364.74 to $761.35 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | Urban Masked | $148.53 to $747.49 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched | $351.99 to $707.61 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | Case Hardened | $260.39 to $637.26 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | Stained | $472.15 to $635.12 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Karambit | Safari Mesh | $466.44 to $601.90 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | Fade | $472.07 to $566.37 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | Night | $149.87 to $563.98 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | Slaughter | $326.67 to $535.41 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | Blue Steel | $242.77 to $460.77 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | Fade | $373.59 to $421.04 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh | $322.05 to $405.04 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | Night | $145.01 to $402.67 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest | $143.75 to $399.99 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | Stained | $172.31 to $370.32 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | Slaughter | $326.76 to $368.00 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened | $196.82 to $366.64 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel | $176.58 to $350.83 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened | $116.86 to $342.13 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | Night | $52.96 to $329.77 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | $318.46 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh | $145.62 to $317.17 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT | $148.62 to $311.73 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bayonet | Scorched | $136.40 to $309.37 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | Scorched | $134.76 to $255.17 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel | $63.48 to $250.87 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked | $136.10 to $236.03 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest | $127.58 to $224.07 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | $216.96 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | Stained | $139.61 to $216.01 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked | $54.47 to $185.86 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT | $130.21 to $183.08 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | Fade | $148.24 to $177.19 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh | $132.58 to $156.86 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh | $49.35 to $152.57 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | Slaughter | $112.70 to $146.20 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | Stained | $61.03 to $127.48 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | Scorched | $50.86 to $112.04 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT | $50.18 to $106.72 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest | $51.28 to $101.68 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Gut Knife | $71.60 |
| Covert (red) | AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel | $87.90 to $428.75 |
| Covert (red) | P2000 | Fire Elemental | $95.00 to $166.44 |
| Classified (pink) | P250 | Cartel | $10.41 to $46.68 |
| Classified (pink) | SCAR-20 | Cardiac | $10.83 to $31.30 |
| Classified (pink) | XM1014 | Tranquility | $9.49 to $25.51 |
| Restricted (purple) | M4A4 | Griffin | $3.48 to $92.52 |
| Restricted (purple) | M4A1-S | Basilisk | $9.43 to $35.66 |
| Restricted (purple) | Glock-18 | Grinder | $2.83 to $10.94 |
| Restricted (purple) | Sawed-Off | Highwayman | $1.70 to $7.37 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | MAG-7 | Firestarter | $0.78 to $9.20 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | UMP-45 | Delusion | $0.85 to $7.02 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard | $3.06 to $4.48 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | MP9 | Dart | $0.96 to $3.67 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | G3SG1 | Murky | $0.82 to $2.68 |
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case drop odds
These are Valve's official CS2 case odds, used for every open in the simulator:
| Rarity | Chance per open | Items in this case |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (blue) | 79.92% | 5 |
| Restricted (purple) | 15.98% | 4 |
| Classified (pink) | 3.20% | 3 |
| Covert (red) | 0.64% | 2 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | 0.26% | 65 |
Is the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case worth opening?
Opening one Operation Vanguard Weapon Case costs about $8.98: $6.48 for the case plus $2.50 for the key. Weighting every item by its real drop chance, wear and the 10% StatTrak chance, the expected value of one open is about $4.99, or roughly 56% of what you spend. Over 100 opens that is an expected loss of around $398.83. Almost all of the value sits in the Covert and knife slots, which together land on just 0.90% of opens, so most real openings return far less than the average. That is why trying it in the simulator first is the smart move.
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case FAQ
What are the odds of getting a knife from the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
Every Operation Vanguard Weapon Case open has a 0.26% chance (about 1 in 385) of a Rare Special Item. In this case that means Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit and more. Covert skins drop 0.64% of the time, Classified 3.20%, Restricted 15.98% and Mil-Spec 79.92%.
Is the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case worth opening?
On average one Operation Vanguard Weapon Case returns about $4.99 in Steam market value against roughly $8.98 for the case plus a key, about 56% back. Over many opens you should expect to lose money; open it for fun in the simulator first.
What is the best item in the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
The top Covert skin is AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel, followed by P2000 | Fire Elemental. The rarest drops are the Rare Special Items: Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit and more.
Is this Operation Vanguard Weapon Case simulator free?
Yes. The simulator is free, needs no account and never uses real money or awards real items. It uses the real Operation Vanguard Weapon Case item pool and Valve's published odds so you can see how opening it really plays out.
Simulate related cases
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