About the Operation Wildfire Case
Open the Operation Wildfire Case for free (released 2016) using the real item pool and Valve's published drop odds. Pick the Operation Wildfire Case in the simulator above, spin a single case or bulk-open hundreds, and see what you would really pull: AK-47 | Fuel Injector and M4A4 | The Battlestar at Covert, and Bowie Knife as the Rare Special Item. Nothing costs money and nothing is rigged.
What's inside the Operation Wildfire Case
Indicative Steam market prices across wears (Factory New to Battle-Scarred), updated 2026-10-03. StatTrak versions are worth more.
| Rarity | Item | Price range |
|---|---|---|
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh | $56.70 to $702.24 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web | $120.01 to $599.90 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened | $137.75 to $389.07 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked | $59.11 to $332.42 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel | $108.48 to $296.03 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | Fade | $277.54 to $285.89 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter | $217.11 to $264.77 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | Stained | $76.98 to $171.70 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | Night | $69.37 to $153.00 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest | $60.92 to $146.40 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT | $53.77 to $140.23 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | Scorched | $56.27 to $132.96 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | ★ Bowie Knife | $106.72 |
| Covert (red) | AK-47 | Fuel Injector | $113.75 to $538.48 |
| Covert (red) | M4A4 | The Battlestar | $33.94 to $104.61 |
| Classified (pink) | Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon | $19.07 to $85.69 |
| Classified (pink) | AWP | Elite Build | $11.25 to $75.56 |
| Classified (pink) | Nova | Hyper Beast | $11.69 to $31.39 |
| Restricted (purple) | Glock-18 | Royal Legion | $2.44 to $48.70 |
| Restricted (purple) | FAMAS | Valence | $3.25 to $34.71 |
| Restricted (purple) | Five-SeveN | Triumvirate | $2.12 to $16.24 |
| Restricted (purple) | MP7 | Impire | $2.35 to $10.79 |
| Restricted (purple) | MAG-7 | Praetorian | $1.62 to $6.80 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | USP-S | Lead Conduit | $0.90 to $15.73 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | Tec-9 | Jambiya | $0.54 to $7.42 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | Dual Berettas | Cartel | $0.49 to $5.04 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | SSG 08 | Necropos | $0.47 to $4.35 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | PP-Bizon | Photic Zone | $0.59 to $3.43 |
| Mil-Spec (blue) | MAC-10 | Lapis Gator | $0.99 to $2.50 |
Operation Wildfire Case drop odds
These are Valve's official CS2 case odds, used for every open in the simulator:
| Rarity | Chance per open | Items in this case |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (blue) | 79.92% | 6 |
| Restricted (purple) | 15.98% | 5 |
| Classified (pink) | 3.20% | 3 |
| Covert (red) | 0.64% | 2 |
| Rare Special Item (knife or gloves) | 0.26% | 13 |
Is the Operation Wildfire Case worth opening?
Opening one Operation Wildfire Case costs about $6.48: $3.98 for the case plus $2.50 for the key. Weighting every item by its real drop chance, wear and the 10% StatTrak chance, the expected value of one open is about $3.56, or roughly 55% of what you spend. Over 100 opens that is an expected loss of around $292.29. Almost all of the value sits in the Covert and knife slots, which together land on just 0.90% of opens, so most real openings return far less than the average. That is why trying it in the simulator first is the smart move.
Operation Wildfire Case FAQ
What are the odds of getting a knife from the Operation Wildfire Case?
Every Operation Wildfire Case open has a 0.26% chance (about 1 in 385) of a Rare Special Item. In this case that means Bowie Knife. Covert skins drop 0.64% of the time, Classified 3.20%, Restricted 15.98% and Mil-Spec 79.92%.
Is the Operation Wildfire Case worth opening?
On average one Operation Wildfire Case returns about $3.56 in Steam market value against roughly $6.48 for the case plus a key, about 55% back. Over many opens you should expect to lose money; open it for fun in the simulator first.
What is the best item in the Operation Wildfire Case?
The top Covert skin is AK-47 | Fuel Injector, followed by M4A4 | The Battlestar. The rarest drops are the Rare Special Items: Bowie Knife.
Is this Operation Wildfire Case simulator free?
Yes. The simulator is free, needs no account and never uses real money or awards real items. It uses the real Operation Wildfire Case item pool and Valve's published odds so you can see how opening it really plays out.
Simulate related cases
Ready for real cases?
When the demo is not enough, open real CS2 cases on CaseBattles.gg with provably fair results you can verify, or take on other players in case battles. 18+ only, play responsibly.