Best CS2 Case to Open in 2026, Ranked by Expected Return

All 42 cases ranked

Expected return = average Steam value of one open divided by its cost. Knife/gloves chance per $1 = 0.26% divided by the cost of one open in dollars. Case links open the simulator: demo, nothing won, 18+.

#	Case	Cost / open	Expected value	Expected return ↓	Knife/gloves chance per $1	Cost per expected knife/gloves
1	Prisma Case	$4.19	$2.59	61.8%	0.062%	$1,611.54
2	Snakebite Case	$3.04	$1.76	58.1%	0.086%	$1,169.23
3	eSports 2013 Winter Case	$19.77	$11.24	56.8%	0.013%	$7,603.85
4	Operation Vanguard Weapon Case	$8.98	$4.99	55.6%	0.029%	$3,453.85
5	Prisma 2 Case	$4.11	$2.27	55.3%	0.063%	$1,580.77
6	Horizon Case	$4.64	$2.56	55.3%	0.056%	$1,784.62
7	Operation Wildfire Case	$6.48	$3.56	54.9%	0.040%	$2,492.31
8	Gamma 2 Case	$6.79	$3.71	54.7%	0.038%	$2,611.54
9	Chroma 2 Case	$7.77	$4.24	54.5%	0.033%	$2,988.46
10	Gamma Case	$6.86	$3.71	54.1%	0.038%	$2,638.46
11	CS:GO Weapon Case 2	$30.79	$16.42	53.3%	0.008%	$11,842.31
12	Operation Broken Fang Case	$10.65	$5.68	53.3%	0.024%	$4,096.15
13	Revolver Case	$6.41	$3.36	52.4%	0.041%	$2,465.38
14	Shadow Case	$4.84	$2.52	52.2%	0.054%	$1,861.54
15	Operation Phoenix Weapon Case	$7.75	$4.02	51.8%	0.034%	$2,980.77
16	Falchion Case	$4.74	$2.42	51.1%	0.055%	$1,823.08
17	Chroma 3 Case	$7.33	$3.72	50.8%	0.035%	$2,819.23
18	Gallery Case	$3.40	$1.71	50.3%	0.076%	$1,307.69
19	CS:GO Weapon Case 3	$20.84	$10.45	50.1%	0.012%	$8,015.38
20	Chroma Case	$9.20	$4.50	48.9%	0.028%	$3,538.46
21	Shattered Web Case	$8.41	$4.07	48.4%	0.031%	$3,234.62
22	Danger Zone Case	$4.10	$1.98	48.4%	0.063%	$1,576.92
23	CS20 Case	$3.77	$1.76	46.8%	0.069%	$1,450.00
24	Fever Case	$3.38	$1.57	46.5%	0.077%	$1,300.00
25	Spectrum 2 Case	$6.61	$3.07	46.4%	0.039%	$2,542.31
26	Dreams & Nightmares Case	$4.00	$1.82	45.5%	0.065%	$1,538.46
27	Spectrum Case	$7.52	$3.36	44.7%	0.035%	$2,892.31
28	Glove Case	$16.26	$7.23	44.4%	0.016%	$6,253.85
29	Winter Offensive Weapon Case	$15.38	$6.79	44.2%	0.017%	$5,915.38
30	Recoil Case	$2.87	$1.27	44.1%	0.091%	$1,103.85
31	Operation Breakout Weapon Case	$13.26	$5.84	44.1%	0.020%	$5,100.00
32	eSports 2014 Summer Case	$19.77	$8.60	43.5%	0.013%	$7,603.85
33	Clutch Case	$3.21	$1.31	40.8%	0.081%	$1,234.62
34	Revolution Case	$2.76	$1.12	40.6%	0.094%	$1,061.54
35	Operation Hydra Case	$40.86	$16.27	39.8%	0.006%	$15,715.38
36	Huntsman Weapon Case	$13.96	$5.24	37.5%	0.019%	$5,369.23
37	Fracture Case	$3.15	$1.15	36.6%	0.083%	$1,211.54
38	Kilowatt Case	$2.68	$0.98	36.4%	0.097%	$1,030.77
39	Operation Riptide Case	$14.35	$5.15	35.9%	0.018%	$5,519.23
40	CS:GO Weapon Case	$148.05	$44.46	30.0%	0.002%	$56,942.31
41	eSports 2013 Case	$61.73	$17.66	28.6%	0.004%	$23,742.31
42	Operation Bravo Case	$82.00	$22.30	27.2%	0.003%	$31,538.46

Why every case returns less than it costs

Every open costs the case's market price plus a $2.50 key bought from Valve. The key money leaves the item economy, while the items that come out are priced by the Steam market, where a steady stream of openings keeps supply high. 80% of opens are Mil-Spec skins that mostly sell for cents, and the rare big hits do not make up the gap. So all 42 cases return under 100%: the best, the Prisma Case, about 62%; the average, 47%; the lowest, the Operation Bravo Case, 27%.

These values are Steam market prices before the market's own fee on every sale, so the cash you could actually get back is lower still. Expected return is a long-run average: a single open can be worth far more or far less, and no ranking changes the odds of the next open.

These are Valve's published odds

Valve published one rarity table for weapon cases, and every case uses it. Within a tier each item is equally likely, and StatTrak versions drop 10% of the time where they exist. The wear spread behind the expected values is an estimate, because Valve does not publish it. How CS2 case odds work.

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