About the Nova | Toy Soldier
Nova | Toy Soldier is a Restricted skin that drops from one of the 42 CS2 weapon cases, the Horizon Case.
Valve released the Horizon Case on 2 August 2018.
Each open has a 3.1960% chance (about 1 in 31) of pulling it, as one of 5 Restricted finishes. One in ten of those drops is StatTrak.
It sits in tier 2 of 5 (Mil-Spec to Rare Special) and ranks #58 of 69 finishes in the Horizon Case by top-wear Steam price.
Its Steam price runs from $0.89 to $18.52 across wears, against $4.64 to open the Horizon Case (case plus $2.50 key), so 2 of its 5 priced wears are worth more than one open.
Cases that drop the Nova | Toy Soldier
Chance per open = Valve's Restricted odds divided by the number of Restricted finishes in that case. StatTrak versions drop 10% of the time. Open any of these free in the simulator: demo, nothing won. 18+.
| Case | Chance per open | About 1 in | StatTrak | Cost / open | Released |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon Case1 of 5 Restricted | 3.1960% | 31 | 0.31960% | $4.64 | 2 August 2018 |
Nova | Toy Soldier wears, float ranges and prices
Steam market 7-day average prices from 2026-10-03. Our item data has no per-skin float cap, so the standard 0.00 to 1.00 scale and the five wear bands are shown. A wear without a price had no recent sales or does not exist for this skin.
| Wear | Float range | Price | StatTrak |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.00 to 0.07 | $18.52 | $15.30 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.07 to 0.15 | $7.18 | $5.51 |
| Field-Tested | 0.15 to 0.38 | $1.26 | $2.10 |
| Well-Worn | 0.38 to 0.45 | $0.90 | $1.62 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.45 to 1.00 | $0.89 | $1.87 |
Nova | Toy Soldier FAQ
What are the odds of getting the Nova | Toy Soldier?
3.1960% per Horizon Case open (1 in 31). That is Valve's 15.98% Restricted chance split evenly across the finishes in that tier. A StatTrak copy is one tenth of that, 0.31960% at best.
Which CS2 cases drop the Nova | Toy Soldier?
Only the Horizon Case. The cheapest to open is the Horizon Case at $4.64 including the key.
How much is the Nova | Toy Soldier worth?
Factory New $18.52, Minimal Wear $7.18, Field-Tested $1.26, Well-Worn $0.90, Battle-Scarred $0.89 on the Steam market (7-day average, 2026-10-03). StatTrak sells for $1.62 to $15.30.
Other Restricted finishes in the Horizon Case
All CS2 skins by rarity · Open the Horizon Case in the simulator (demo, nothing won, 18+) · How CS2 case odds work
This is a free simulator for entertainment: a demo, nothing is won and no money is used. Odds are Valve's published odds; wear and Doppler phase splits are estimated models, not Valve figures. Item values are indicative Steam market prices. Counter-Strike 2 and its item images are property of Valve Corporation. CaseBattles is not affiliated with or endorsed by Valve. 18+ only. Responsible gaming.