About the Nova | Rising Skull
Nova | Rising Skull is a Restricted skin that drops from one of the 42 CS2 weapon cases, the Winter Offensive Weapon Case.
Valve released the Winter Offensive Weapon Case on 18 December 2013.
Each open has a 3.9950% chance (about 1 in 25) of pulling it, as one of 4 Restricted finishes. One in ten of those drops is StatTrak.
It sits in tier 2 of 5 (Mil-Spec to Rare Special) and ranks #74 of 78 finishes in the Winter Offensive Weapon Case by top-wear Steam price.
Its Steam price runs from $5.00 to $9.92 across wears, against $15.38 to open the Winter Offensive Weapon Case (case plus $2.50 key), so even its best wear is worth less than one open.
Cases that drop the Nova | Rising Skull
Chance per open = Valve's Restricted odds divided by the number of Restricted finishes in that case. StatTrak versions drop 10% of the time. Open any of these free in the simulator: demo, nothing won. 18+.
| Case | Chance per open | About 1 in | StatTrak | Cost / open | Released |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case1 of 4 Restricted | 3.9950% | 25 | 0.39950% | $15.38 | 18 December 2013 |
Nova | Rising Skull wears, float ranges and prices
Steam market 7-day average prices from 2026-10-03. Our item data has no per-skin float cap, so the standard 0.00 to 1.00 scale and the five wear bands are shown. A wear without a price had no recent sales or does not exist for this skin.
| Wear | Float range | Price | StatTrak |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.00 to 0.07 | $9.92 | $13.36 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.07 to 0.15 | $8.00 | $9.11 |
| Field-Tested | 0.15 to 0.38 | $5.27 | $6.65 |
| Well-Worn | 0.38 to 0.45 | $5.00 | $8.46 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.45 to 1.00 | $5.56 | $6.73 |
Nova | Rising Skull FAQ
What are the odds of getting the Nova | Rising Skull?
3.9950% per Winter Offensive Weapon Case open (1 in 25). That is Valve's 15.98% Restricted chance split evenly across the finishes in that tier. A StatTrak copy is one tenth of that, 0.39950% at best.
Which CS2 cases drop the Nova | Rising Skull?
Only the Winter Offensive Weapon Case. The cheapest to open is the Winter Offensive Weapon Case at $15.38 including the key.
How much is the Nova | Rising Skull worth?
Factory New $9.92, Minimal Wear $8.00, Field-Tested $5.27, Well-Worn $5.00, Battle-Scarred $5.56 on the Steam market (7-day average, 2026-10-03). StatTrak sells for $6.65 to $13.36.
Other Restricted finishes in the Winter Offensive Weapon Case
All CS2 skins by rarity · Open the Winter Offensive Weapon Case in the simulator (demo, nothing won, 18+) · How CS2 case odds work
This is a free simulator for entertainment: a demo, nothing is won and no money is used. Odds are Valve's published odds; wear and Doppler phase splits are estimated models, not Valve figures. Item values are indicative Steam market prices. Counter-Strike 2 and its item images are property of Valve Corporation. CaseBattles is not affiliated with or endorsed by Valve. 18+ only. Responsible gaming.