About the M4A1-S | Dark Water
M4A1-S | Dark Water is a Restricted skin that drops from one of the 42 CS2 weapon cases, the CS:GO Weapon Case.
Valve released the CS:GO Weapon Case on 14 August 2013.
Each open has a 5.3267% chance (about 1 in 19) of pulling it, as one of 3 Restricted finishes. One in ten of those drops is StatTrak.
It sits in tier 2 of 5 (Mil-Spec to Rare Special) and ranks #69 of 74 finishes in the CS:GO Weapon Case by top-wear Steam price.
Its Steam price runs from $73.97 to $97.56 across wears, against $148.05 to open the CS:GO Weapon Case (case plus $2.50 key), so even its best wear is worth less than one open.
Cases that drop the M4A1-S | Dark Water
Chance per open = Valve's Restricted odds divided by the number of Restricted finishes in that case. StatTrak versions drop 10% of the time. Open any of these free in the simulator: demo, nothing won. 18+.
| Case | Chance per open | About 1 in | StatTrak | Cost / open | Released |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS:GO Weapon Case1 of 3 Restricted | 5.3267% | 19 | 0.53267% | $148.05 | 14 August 2013 |
M4A1-S | Dark Water wears, float ranges and prices
Steam market 7-day average prices from 2026-10-03. Our item data has no per-skin float cap, so the standard 0.00 to 1.00 scale and the five wear bands are shown. A wear without a price had no recent sales or does not exist for this skin.
| Wear | Float range | Price | StatTrak |
|---|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.00 to 0.07 | No price | No price |
| Minimal Wear | 0.07 to 0.15 | $97.56 | $227.89 |
| Field-Tested | 0.15 to 0.38 | $73.97 | $147.60 |
| Well-Worn | 0.38 to 0.45 | No price | No price |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.45 to 1.00 | No price | No price |
M4A1-S | Dark Water FAQ
What are the odds of getting the M4A1-S | Dark Water?
5.3267% per CS:GO Weapon Case open (1 in 19). That is Valve's 15.98% Restricted chance split evenly across the finishes in that tier. A StatTrak copy is one tenth of that, 0.53267% at best.
Which CS2 cases drop the M4A1-S | Dark Water?
Only the CS:GO Weapon Case. The cheapest to open is the CS:GO Weapon Case at $148.05 including the key.
How much is the M4A1-S | Dark Water worth?
Minimal Wear $97.56, Field-Tested $73.97 on the Steam market (7-day average, 2026-10-03). StatTrak sells for $147.60 to $227.89. Wears without a price had no recent sales or do not exist for this skin.
Other Restricted finishes in the CS:GO Weapon Case
All CS2 skins by rarity · Open the CS:GO Weapon Case in the simulator (demo, nothing won, 18+) · How CS2 case odds work
This is a free simulator for entertainment: a demo, nothing is won and no money is used. Odds are Valve's published odds; wear and Doppler phase splits are estimated models, not Valve figures. Item values are indicative Steam market prices. Counter-Strike 2 and its item images are property of Valve Corporation. CaseBattles is not affiliated with or endorsed by Valve. 18+ only. Responsible gaming.