Statistical Improbability
Statistical Improbability Case
Open the Statistical Improbability case on CaseBattles.gg. Below are the full contents with exact, provably-fair drop rates, current skin values, and the case's expected value — no hidden odds. You can open it solo or add it to a case battle.
Statistical Improbability Case Odds & Drop Rates
| Item | Wear | Drop chance | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque | FN | 0.01% | 7,090.05 |
| MP7 | Nemesis | FN | 2.00% | 44.07 |
| MAC-10 | Disco Tech | FN | 2.00% | 36.33 |
| UMP-45 | Blaze | FN | 2.00% | 29.66 |
| PP-Bizon | Carbon Fiber | MW | 2.00% | 7.27 |
| MP5-SD | Nitro | MW | 4.00% | 5.99 |
| P90 | Traction | FN | 5.00% | 3.01 |
| MP9 | Shredded | FT | 5.00% | 0.26 |
| Sealed Graffiti | Toasted | Desert Amber | 77.99% | 0.04 |
Is the Statistical Improbability Case Worth Opening?
The Statistical Improbability case has an expected value of about 3.49 gems against its 3.84 gem open price. That figure is the long-run average — individual openings are high-variance, which is the whole point. The top prize is Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (FN) at roughly 7,090.05 gems. Every drop is provably fair and every rate on this page is the real rate used by the roll.
Open the Statistical Improbability Case in a Battle
Prefer competition? Add the Statistical Improbability case to a case battle and open the same case at the same time as other players — the highest total value takes the entire pot. You can go 1v1, 2v2, 3v3, or free-for-all.
Statistical Improbability Case FAQ
What is the best item in the Statistical Improbability case?
The top prize is Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (FN), worth about 7,090.05 gems, with a 0.01% drop chance.
What are the drop rates for the Statistical Improbability case?
Every item's exact drop rate is published in the table above. The combined chance of unboxing a knife or glove is 0.00%.
Is the Statistical Improbability case worth opening?
Its expected value is about 3.49 gems against a 3.84 gem open price. Like every case it is high-variance — the published odds let you decide for yourself.
Can I open the Statistical Improbability case in a case battle?
Yes. Add the Statistical Improbability case to a case battle and open it head-to-head against other players — the highest total value wins the whole pot.
Related: Best CS2 cases to open · CS2 case opening · Provably fair